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Konvansiyonel Kazı Yöntemleriyle Açılan Demiryolu Tünel Projeleri Yapım ve İşletme Süreçleri çin Risk Esaslı Uygulama Modeli Önerisi

Year 2024, Issue: 19, 147 - 159, 31.01.2024

Ozgur Satıcı

https://doi.org/10.47072/demiryolu.1384548

Abstract

Tüm mühendislik projeleri aynı zamanda bir risk yönetim uygulamasıdır. Bu nedenle mühendisler projeleri tasarlarken ve yönetirken bilinçli ya da bilinçsiz şekilde proje risklerini de yönetmek zorundadır. Beklenmeyen durumlarla karşılaşılabilecek mühendislik projelerinden biri de yeraltı mühendislik yapılarından biri olan tünel projeleridir. Bu çalışma yaygın bilinen tünel yapım teknikleri ile risk yönetim prensiplerini bir araya getirecek bir bakış açısı ortaya koymakta ve bir tünel projesinin uygulanması sırasında ortaya çıkabilecek olası sorunlara karşı önceden önlem alınmasına yardımcı olacak bir yöntem önermektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı özellikle yeraltı mühendislik projelerinde risk yönetim ilke ve tekniklerinin kullanımı ile ilgili bir farkındalık yaratmaktır. Bu bağlamda tünel mühendislik tasarım ve kazı aşamaları senaryo yapılandırma modeli yöntemi ile değerlendirilmiş ve tünel projesinin tasarımdan yapım aşamasına kadar olan süreçlerde risk oluşturabilecek önemli belirsizlikler tanımlanmıştır.

Keywords

Risk değerlendirme Risk yönetimi Senaryo yapılandırma modeli Tünel proje Yeraltı kazı yöntemleri

References

  • [1] O. Satici, Topal T., “Evaluation of tunnel excavation methods in accordance with engineering geology and rock mass classification systems”, Journal of Geological Engineering 39 (1), 2015
  • [2] F. Tonon, Sequential excavation, NATM and ADECO: what they have in common and how they differ, Tunneling and Underground Space Technology, 25(3) pp245–265, 2010, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tust.2009.12.004
  • [3] T.E. Brown, “Risk assessment and management in underground rock engineering—an overview”, Journal of Rock Mechanics And Geotechnical Engineering, v4 (3), pp193–204, 2012, https://doi.org/10.3724/SP.J.1235.2012.00193
  • [4] J. Daller, “Risk control at the design of a 13 km long railway tunnel in Austria”, Geotechnical Risks in Rock Tunnels, Taylor & Francis Group, London, ISBN 0-415-40005-8, pp155-163, 2006, https://doi.org/10.1201/9780203963586
  • [5] M. Deng, “Challenges and thoughts on risk management and control for the group construction of a super-long tunnel by TBM”, Engineering, v4, pp112–122, 2018, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eng.2017.07.001
  • [6] D.S. Eskesen, P. Tengborg, J. Kampman, H.T. Veichherts, “Guidelines for tunneling risk management”, International Tunneling Association, Working Group No. 2, Tunneling and Underground Space Technology, v19, pp217–237, 2004
  • [7] D. Fabbri, “Risk, contract management, and financing of the gotthard base tunnel in Switzerland”, Engineering, v5 pp379–383, 2019, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eng.2019.04.001
  • [8] J.D. Gutierrez-Fernandez, S.S. Rodriguez, H. Gonzalo-Orden, H. Perez-Acebo, “Analysis of rock mass classifications for safer infrastructures”, Transportation Research Procedia, v58 pp606–613, 2021
  • [9] X. Lei, “Risk assessment model of underground engineering based on Delphi-AHP”, 2nd International Conference on Oil & Gas Engineering and Geological Sciences, IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 2020, pp558, 032029, https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/558/3/032029
  • [10] I. Poeschl, J. Kleberger, “Geotechnical risk in rock mass characterization – A Concept”, Geotechnical Risks in Rock Tunnels, Taylor & Francis Group, London, ISBN 0-415-40005-8, pp145-154, 2006
  • [11] P. Schubert, “Geotechnical risk management in tunneling”, Geotechnical Risks in Rock Tunnels, Taylor & Francis Group, London, ISBN-0-415-40005-8, pp53-62, 2006
  • [12] J. Schuyler, “Risk and decision analysis in projects”, Project Management Institute Publication, 2nd edition, p278, 2001
  • [13] K. Shahriar, M. Sharifzadeh, K.J. Hamidi, “Geotechnical risk assessment-based approach for rock TBM selection in difficult ground conditions”, Tunneling and Underground Space Technology, v23, pp318–325, 2008
  • [14] R.L. Sousa, H.H. Einstein, “Risk analysis during tunnel construction using bayesian networks: Porto Metro case study”, Tunneling and Underground Space Technology, Risk Analysis During Tunnel Construction Using Bayesian Networks: Porto Metro case study, 27, pp86–100, 2012, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tust.2011.07.003
  • [15] L.R. Sousa, T. Miranda, R.L. Sousa, J. Tinoco, “The use of data mining techniques in rockburst risk assessment”, Engineering, v3, pp552–558, 2017, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/J.ENG.2017.04.002
  • [16] J. Spross, L. Olsson, H. Stille, “The Swedish geotechnical society’s methodology for risk management: a tool for engineers ın their everyday work”, Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards, 12:3, 183-189, 2018, https://doi.org/10.1080/17499518.2017.1416643
  • [17] M. Tidlund, J. Spross, S. Larsson, “Observational method as risk management tool: The Hvalfjörður Tunnel Project”, Iceland, Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards, 2022, https://doi.org/10.1080/17499518.2022.2046784
  • [18] Y. Xiang, C. Liu, K. Zhang, Q. Wu, “Risk analysis and management of submerged floating tunnel and ıts application”, Procedia Engineering, v4, pp107–116, 2010, https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2010.08.013
  • [19] C. Zhang, N. Liu, W. Chu, “Key technologies and risk management of deep tunnel construction at Jinping II Hydropower Station”, Journal of Rock Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering, v8 pp499-512, 2016
  • [20] G. Brierley, “Tunneling: A Historical Perspective” 2014, http://tunnelingonline.com/tunneling-historical-perspective/ [06 Kasım 2023]
  • [21] G.E. Sandström, “The history of tunneling, underground workings through the ages”, Barrie and Rockliff, 1963
  • [22] N.R. Barton, R. Lien, J. Lunde, “Engineering classification of rock masses for the Design of tunnel support” Rock Mechanics 6(4), 189-239, 1974, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01239496
  • [23] Z.T. Bieniawski, “Engineering rock mass classifications: a complete manual for engineers and geologists in mining”, Civil and Petroleum Engineering: New York, John Wiley and Sons, xii, p251, 1989, ISBN: 978-0-471-60172-2
  • [24] W.W. Lowrance, “Of Acceptable risk”, Los Altos, CA: William Kaufmann, 1976
  • [25] M. Karakus, R.J. Fowell, “An insight into the New Austrian Tunneling Method (NATM)”, Bölgesel Kaya Mekaniği Sempozyumu, 2004, Sivas, Türkiye
  • [26] P. Lunardi, “Design and construction of tunnels, Analysis of Controlled Deformation in Rock and Soils (ADECO-RS)”, Springer, 2008
  • [27] L. Özdemir, “North American Tunneling”, Washington, DC: Taylor & Francis. p246, ISBN 0-415-40128-3, 2006
  • [28] C.L. Vydrova, “Comparison of tunneling methods NATM and ADECO-RS”, The Civil Engineering Journal, 2015, http://dx.doi.org/10.14311/CEJ.2015.01.0003
  • [29] A. Palmstrom, “RMi-A system for characterizing rock mass strength for use in rock engineering”, Journal of Rock Mechanics and Tunneling Technology, v1, pp69-108, 1996
  • [30] D.U. Deere, R.P. Miller, “Engineering classification and index properties for intact rock”, Tech. Rept. No AFWL-65-116, 1966
  • [31] E. Hoek, E.T. Brown, “Practical estimates of rock mass strength”, International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining Sciences, v34, pp 1165-1186, 1997
  • [32] E. Ünal, and İ. Özkan, “Determination of classification parameters for clay-bearing and stratified rock mass”, 9th Conference on Ground Control in Mining, Morgantown, USA, 1990, pp250-259
  • [33] G.E. Wickham, H.R. Tiedemann, E.H. Skinner, “Support determination based on geologic predictions”, In:Lane, K.S.a.G., L. A., ed., North American Rapid Excavation and Tunneling Conference: Chicago, New York: Society of Mining Engineers of the American Institute of Mining, Metallurgical and Petroleum Engineers, 1972, pp43-64
  • [34] K. Terzaghi, “Rock defects and loads on tunnel supports”, In Proctor, R.V., and White, T.L., eds., Rock Tunneling with Steel Support, Volume 1: Youngstown, Ohio, Commercial Shearing and Stamping Company pp17-99, 1946
  • [35] L. Rabcewicz, “The New Austrian Tunneling Method”, Part one, Water Power (November), 453–457, part two, Water Power (December), pp511–515, 1964
  • [36] Y.Y. Haimes, “On the definition of vulnerabilities in measuring risks to infrastructures”, Risk Analysis, v26-2, 2006, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2006.00755.x
  • [37] P. Hopkin, “Fundamentals of risk management, understanding evaluating and ımplementing effective risk management”, The Institute of Risk Management, Kogan Page Limited, p385, 2018
  • [38] Y.Y. Haimes, “On the complex definition of risk: a systems-based approach”, Risk Analysis, v29, p1647–1654, 2009a, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01310.x
  • [39] S. Kaplan, B.J. Garrick, “On the quantitative definition of risk”, Risk Analysis, 1, pp11-27, 1981, http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1981.tb01350.x
  • [40] Y.Y. Haimes, “On the definition of resilience in system”, Risk Analysis, v29, p498–501, 2009b, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01216.x
  • [41] V. Proag, “The concept of vulnerability and resilience”, 4th International Conference on Building Resilience, Procedia Economics and Finance, v18, 2014, pp369-376,
  • [42] Ö. Satıcı, “Projeler nasıl başarılı olur, mühendisler için risk yönetim rehberi”, Seçkin Yayınevi, Ankara, 156s, 2021
  • [43] N. Munier, “Project management for environmental construction and manufacturing engineers”, A Manuel for Putting Theory into Practice, Springer, p262, 2013
  • [44] V. Platon, A. Constantinescu, “Monte Carlo method in risk analysis for investment projects”, Procedia Economics and Finance, v15, p393-400, 2014, https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(14)00463-8
  • [45] K.D. Prasanta, “Project risk management using multiple criteria decision-making technique and decision tree analysis: a case study of Indian oil refinery”, Production Planning & Control, 23:12, 903-921, 2012, https://doi.org/10.1080/09537287.2011.586379
  • [46] N.N. Taleb, “The Black Swan: the impact of the highly improbable”, Penguin Books Ltd. p480, 2008
  • [47] D. Ristic, “A tool for risk assessment”, Safety Engineering”, p121-127 Doi: 10.7562/SE2013.3.03.03
  • [48] https://www.nzta.govt.nz/roads-and-rail/rail/operating-a-railway/risk-management/risk-matrix-likelihood-and-consequence-tool/ (Son erişim 07.12.2023)
  • [49] D. Hillson, “Managing risk in projects”, Fundamentals of Project Management, Gower Publishing, p127, 2009
  • [50] E. B. Aygar, “Tünel projelendirilmesinde kullanılan yöntemler (ampirik, analitik ve nümerik yöntemler), kısıtlamaları, karşılaştırılması ve öneriler,” Demiryolu Mühendisliği Dergisi, sy. 15, ss. 125–133, Ocak 2022, doi: 10.47072/demiryolu.1030404.

Risk Assessment Based Application Model for Design, Construction and Operational Stages for Conventionally Excavated Railway Tunnels

Year 2024, Issue: 19, 147 - 159, 31.01.2024

Ozgur Satıcı

https://doi.org/10.47072/demiryolu.1384548

Abstract

Every engineering project inherently involves applications of risk management. For this reason engineers have to manage the risks consciously or unconsciously. Underground excavations are the projects that unexpected situations may occur mostly. This study combines common tunnel construction techniques and risk management principles and proposes a method that will help to take precautions against possible problems that may arise during the implementation of a tunnel project. In this context, tunnel engineering design and excavation phases were evaluated with the scenario structuring model and important uncertainties that could pose risks in the processes from the design to the construction phase of the tunnel project were defined. The aim of this study is to raise awareness about the use of risk management principles and techniques, especially in underground engineering projects.

Keywords

Risk assessment Risk management Scenario structuring model Tunnel Project Underground excavation methods

References

  • [1] O. Satici, Topal T., “Evaluation of tunnel excavation methods in accordance with engineering geology and rock mass classification systems”, Journal of Geological Engineering 39 (1), 2015
  • [2] F. Tonon, Sequential excavation, NATM and ADECO: what they have in common and how they differ, Tunneling and Underground Space Technology, 25(3) pp245–265, 2010, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tust.2009.12.004
  • [3] T.E. Brown, “Risk assessment and management in underground rock engineering—an overview”, Journal of Rock Mechanics And Geotechnical Engineering, v4 (3), pp193–204, 2012, https://doi.org/10.3724/SP.J.1235.2012.00193
  • [4] J. Daller, “Risk control at the design of a 13 km long railway tunnel in Austria”, Geotechnical Risks in Rock Tunnels, Taylor & Francis Group, London, ISBN 0-415-40005-8, pp155-163, 2006, https://doi.org/10.1201/9780203963586
  • [5] M. Deng, “Challenges and thoughts on risk management and control for the group construction of a super-long tunnel by TBM”, Engineering, v4, pp112–122, 2018, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eng.2017.07.001
  • [6] D.S. Eskesen, P. Tengborg, J. Kampman, H.T. Veichherts, “Guidelines for tunneling risk management”, International Tunneling Association, Working Group No. 2, Tunneling and Underground Space Technology, v19, pp217–237, 2004
  • [7] D. Fabbri, “Risk, contract management, and financing of the gotthard base tunnel in Switzerland”, Engineering, v5 pp379–383, 2019, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eng.2019.04.001
  • [8] J.D. Gutierrez-Fernandez, S.S. Rodriguez, H. Gonzalo-Orden, H. Perez-Acebo, “Analysis of rock mass classifications for safer infrastructures”, Transportation Research Procedia, v58 pp606–613, 2021
  • [9] X. Lei, “Risk assessment model of underground engineering based on Delphi-AHP”, 2nd International Conference on Oil & Gas Engineering and Geological Sciences, IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 2020, pp558, 032029, https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/558/3/032029
  • [10] I. Poeschl, J. Kleberger, “Geotechnical risk in rock mass characterization – A Concept”, Geotechnical Risks in Rock Tunnels, Taylor & Francis Group, London, ISBN 0-415-40005-8, pp145-154, 2006
  • [11] P. Schubert, “Geotechnical risk management in tunneling”, Geotechnical Risks in Rock Tunnels, Taylor & Francis Group, London, ISBN-0-415-40005-8, pp53-62, 2006
  • [12] J. Schuyler, “Risk and decision analysis in projects”, Project Management Institute Publication, 2nd edition, p278, 2001
  • [13] K. Shahriar, M. Sharifzadeh, K.J. Hamidi, “Geotechnical risk assessment-based approach for rock TBM selection in difficult ground conditions”, Tunneling and Underground Space Technology, v23, pp318–325, 2008
  • [14] R.L. Sousa, H.H. Einstein, “Risk analysis during tunnel construction using bayesian networks: Porto Metro case study”, Tunneling and Underground Space Technology, Risk Analysis During Tunnel Construction Using Bayesian Networks: Porto Metro case study, 27, pp86–100, 2012, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tust.2011.07.003
  • [15] L.R. Sousa, T. Miranda, R.L. Sousa, J. Tinoco, “The use of data mining techniques in rockburst risk assessment”, Engineering, v3, pp552–558, 2017, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/J.ENG.2017.04.002
  • [16] J. Spross, L. Olsson, H. Stille, “The Swedish geotechnical society’s methodology for risk management: a tool for engineers ın their everyday work”, Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards, 12:3, 183-189, 2018, https://doi.org/10.1080/17499518.2017.1416643
  • [17] M. Tidlund, J. Spross, S. Larsson, “Observational method as risk management tool: The Hvalfjörður Tunnel Project”, Iceland, Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards, 2022, https://doi.org/10.1080/17499518.2022.2046784
  • [18] Y. Xiang, C. Liu, K. Zhang, Q. Wu, “Risk analysis and management of submerged floating tunnel and ıts application”, Procedia Engineering, v4, pp107–116, 2010, https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2010.08.013
  • [19] C. Zhang, N. Liu, W. Chu, “Key technologies and risk management of deep tunnel construction at Jinping II Hydropower Station”, Journal of Rock Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering, v8 pp499-512, 2016
  • [20] G. Brierley, “Tunneling: A Historical Perspective” 2014, http://tunnelingonline.com/tunneling-historical-perspective/ [06 Kasım 2023]
  • [21] G.E. Sandström, “The history of tunneling, underground workings through the ages”, Barrie and Rockliff, 1963
  • [22] N.R. Barton, R. Lien, J. Lunde, “Engineering classification of rock masses for the Design of tunnel support” Rock Mechanics 6(4), 189-239, 1974, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01239496
  • [23] Z.T. Bieniawski, “Engineering rock mass classifications: a complete manual for engineers and geologists in mining”, Civil and Petroleum Engineering: New York, John Wiley and Sons, xii, p251, 1989, ISBN: 978-0-471-60172-2
  • [24] W.W. Lowrance, “Of Acceptable risk”, Los Altos, CA: William Kaufmann, 1976
  • [25] M. Karakus, R.J. Fowell, “An insight into the New Austrian Tunneling Method (NATM)”, Bölgesel Kaya Mekaniği Sempozyumu, 2004, Sivas, Türkiye
  • [26] P. Lunardi, “Design and construction of tunnels, Analysis of Controlled Deformation in Rock and Soils (ADECO-RS)”, Springer, 2008
  • [27] L. Özdemir, “North American Tunneling”, Washington, DC: Taylor & Francis. p246, ISBN 0-415-40128-3, 2006
  • [28] C.L. Vydrova, “Comparison of tunneling methods NATM and ADECO-RS”, The Civil Engineering Journal, 2015, http://dx.doi.org/10.14311/CEJ.2015.01.0003
  • [29] A. Palmstrom, “RMi-A system for characterizing rock mass strength for use in rock engineering”, Journal of Rock Mechanics and Tunneling Technology, v1, pp69-108, 1996
  • [30] D.U. Deere, R.P. Miller, “Engineering classification and index properties for intact rock”, Tech. Rept. No AFWL-65-116, 1966
  • [31] E. Hoek, E.T. Brown, “Practical estimates of rock mass strength”, International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining Sciences, v34, pp 1165-1186, 1997
  • [32] E. Ünal, and İ. Özkan, “Determination of classification parameters for clay-bearing and stratified rock mass”, 9th Conference on Ground Control in Mining, Morgantown, USA, 1990, pp250-259
  • [33] G.E. Wickham, H.R. Tiedemann, E.H. Skinner, “Support determination based on geologic predictions”, In:Lane, K.S.a.G., L. A., ed., North American Rapid Excavation and Tunneling Conference: Chicago, New York: Society of Mining Engineers of the American Institute of Mining, Metallurgical and Petroleum Engineers, 1972, pp43-64
  • [34] K. Terzaghi, “Rock defects and loads on tunnel supports”, In Proctor, R.V., and White, T.L., eds., Rock Tunneling with Steel Support, Volume 1: Youngstown, Ohio, Commercial Shearing and Stamping Company pp17-99, 1946
  • [35] L. Rabcewicz, “The New Austrian Tunneling Method”, Part one, Water Power (November), 453–457, part two, Water Power (December), pp511–515, 1964
  • [36] Y.Y. Haimes, “On the definition of vulnerabilities in measuring risks to infrastructures”, Risk Analysis, v26-2, 2006, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2006.00755.x
  • [37] P. Hopkin, “Fundamentals of risk management, understanding evaluating and ımplementing effective risk management”, The Institute of Risk Management, Kogan Page Limited, p385, 2018
  • [38] Y.Y. Haimes, “On the complex definition of risk: a systems-based approach”, Risk Analysis, v29, p1647–1654, 2009a, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01310.x
  • [39] S. Kaplan, B.J. Garrick, “On the quantitative definition of risk”, Risk Analysis, 1, pp11-27, 1981, http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1981.tb01350.x
  • [40] Y.Y. Haimes, “On the definition of resilience in system”, Risk Analysis, v29, p498–501, 2009b, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01216.x
  • [41] V. Proag, “The concept of vulnerability and resilience”, 4th International Conference on Building Resilience, Procedia Economics and Finance, v18, 2014, pp369-376,
  • [42] Ö. Satıcı, “Projeler nasıl başarılı olur, mühendisler için risk yönetim rehberi”, Seçkin Yayınevi, Ankara, 156s, 2021
  • [43] N. Munier, “Project management for environmental construction and manufacturing engineers”, A Manuel for Putting Theory into Practice, Springer, p262, 2013
  • [44] V. Platon, A. Constantinescu, “Monte Carlo method in risk analysis for investment projects”, Procedia Economics and Finance, v15, p393-400, 2014, https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(14)00463-8
  • [45] K.D. Prasanta, “Project risk management using multiple criteria decision-making technique and decision tree analysis: a case study of Indian oil refinery”, Production Planning & Control, 23:12, 903-921, 2012, https://doi.org/10.1080/09537287.2011.586379
  • [46] N.N. Taleb, “The Black Swan: the impact of the highly improbable”, Penguin Books Ltd. p480, 2008
  • [47] D. Ristic, “A tool for risk assessment”, Safety Engineering”, p121-127 Doi: 10.7562/SE2013.3.03.03
  • [48] https://www.nzta.govt.nz/roads-and-rail/rail/operating-a-railway/risk-management/risk-matrix-likelihood-and-consequence-tool/ (Son erişim 07.12.2023)
  • [49] D. Hillson, “Managing risk in projects”, Fundamentals of Project Management, Gower Publishing, p127, 2009
  • [50] E. B. Aygar, “Tünel projelendirilmesinde kullanılan yöntemler (ampirik, analitik ve nümerik yöntemler), kısıtlamaları, karşılaştırılması ve öneriler,” Demiryolu Mühendisliği Dergisi, sy. 15, ss. 125–133, Ocak 2022, doi: 10.47072/demiryolu.1030404.
There are 50 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Applied Geology
Journal Section Article
Authors

Ozgur Satıcı 0000-0003-4709-4334

Publication Date January 31, 2024
Submission Date November 1, 2023
Acceptance Date December 9, 2023
Published in Issue Year 2024 Issue: 19

Cite

IEEE O. Satıcı, “Konvansiyonel Kazı Yöntemleriyle Açılan Demiryolu Tünel Projeleri Yapım ve İşletme Süreçleri çin Risk Esaslı Uygulama Modeli Önerisi”, Demiryolu Mühendisliği, no. 19, pp. 147–159, January 2024, doi: 10.47072/demiryolu.1384548.