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Mali Yorgunluk: Türkiye İçin Bir Uygulama

Yıl 2021, Sayı: 58, 399 - 418, 30.04.2021
https://doi.org/10.18070/erciyesiibd.881564

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, mali reaksiyon fonksiyonundan yola çıkılarak Türkiye’de mali yorgunluk davranışının ortaya çıktığı borç yükü seviyesinin belirlenmesidir. Buna göre öncelikle Sıradan En Küçük Kareler Yöntemi aracılığıyla 1986-2019 dönemi yıllık verileri ile mali reaksiyon fonksiyonu hesaplanmıştır. Sonrasında son on yılın verilerinden faydalanarak faiz-büyüme diferansiyeli hesaplanmıştır. Her iki adımdan elde edilen değerlerin standart bütçe kısıdından türetilen bir takım eşitlikler aracılığıyla bir araya getirilmesi sonucunda ise mali yorgunluk davranışının ortaya çıktığı borç yükü seviyesi belirlenmiştir. Buna göre Türkiye’de mali yorgunluk davranışının, kamu borç yükünün yaklaşık olarak %44’e ulaşması durumunda ortaya çıktığı görülmektedir. Nihayetinde Türkiye’de ekonominin kırılgan yapısını ortadan kaldıracak ya da bu kırılganlığı azaltacak yapısal reformların gerçekleştirilmesinin elzem olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Kaynakça

  • Abiad, A. ve Ostry, J. (2005). Primary Surpluses and Sustainable Debt Levels in Emerging Market Countries. IMF Policy Discussion Paper, PDP/05/6, 1-18.
  • Akar, S. (2019). Testing the Fiscal Fatigue Phenomenon in Turkey Using a Long-Run Non-Linear Fiscal Reaction Function Approach. Quantitative Finance and Economics (QFE), 3(4), 645-660.
  • Akbayır, F. ve Yereli, A.B. (2020). Türkiye’de Birincil Dengeyi Etkileyen Faktörler. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 15(2), 565-582.
  • Bastos, F. ve Pineda, E. (2013). Fiscal Space of Brazilian States. Inter-American Development Bank Discussion Paper, IDB-DP-310, 1-20.
  • Bohn, H. (1998). The Behavior of U.S. Public Debt and Deficits. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 949-963.
  • Bohn, H. (2008). The Sustainability of Fiscal Policy in the United States. CESifo Working Paper Series, 1446, 15-49.
  • Celasun, O., Debrun, X. ve Ostry, J. (2007). Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries: A “Fan-Chart” Approach. IMF Staff Papers, 53(3), 401-425.
  • Checherita-Westphal, C. ve Žďárek, V. (2017). Fiscal Reaction Function and Fiscal Fatigue: Evidence for the Euro Area. European Central Bank (ECB) Working Paper Series, 2036, 1-33.
  • Everaert, G. ve Jansen, S. (2018). On the Estimation of Panel Fiscal Reaction Functions: Heterogeneity or Fiscal Fatigue?. Economic Modelling, 70(2018), 87-96.
  • Fournier, J. ve Fall, F. (2017). Limits to Government Debt Sustainability in OECD Countries. Economic Modelling, 66, 30-41.
  • Ghosh, A., Kim, J., Mendoza, E., Ostry, J. ve Qureshi, M. (2011). Fiscal Fatigue, Fiscal Space and Debt Sustainability in Advanced Economies. NBER Working Paper Series, 16782, 1-49.
  • Ghosh, A., Kim, J., Mendoza, E., Ostry, J. ve Qureshi, M. (2013a). Fiscal Fatigue, Fiscal Space and Debt Sustainability in Advanced Economies. The Economic Journal, 123, F4-F30.
  • Ghosh, A., Ostry, J. ve Qureshi, M. (2013b). Fiscal Space and Sovereign Risk Pricing in a Currency Union. Journal of International Money and Finance, 34, 131-163.
  • Gujarati, D.N. ve Porter, D.C. (2012). Temel Ekonometri (Ümit Şenesen ve Gülay Günlük Şenesen, Çev.). İstanbul: Literatür Yayınları (2009).
  • Hajnovič, F. ve Zeman, J. (2013). Fiscal Space in the Euro Zone. Narodna Banka Slovenska, 21(2), 9-14.
  • Icaza, V.E. (2018). Fiscal Fatigue and Debt Sustainability: Empirical Evidence from the Eurozone 1980-2013. Cuadernos de Economía, 41, 69-78.
  • Karakaş, S. (2002). Nedensellik İlişkisi ve Pozitif Bilimin Amaçları Açısından Deneysel Ve Korelatif Yaklaşımlar. Klinik Psikiyatri, 5, 72-81.
  • Kasal, S. ve Özpençe, Ö. (2020). A Fiscal Space Analysis in Terms of Turkeys Domestic Debt. Sosyoekonomi, 28(43), 33-48.
  • Lee, J. ve Strazicich, M.C. (2003). Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks. Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4), 1082-1089.
  • Lozano-Espitia, I. ve Julio-Román, M. (2020). Debt Limits and Fiscal Space for Some Latin American Economies. Latin American Journal of Central Banking 1, 1-4, 100006.
  • MacKinnon, J. G. (1996). Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11(6), 601-618.
  • Mendoza, E. ve Ostry, J. (2008). International Evidence on Fiscal Solvency: Is Fiscal Policy “Responsible”?. Journal of Monetary Economics, 55, 1081-1093.
  • Nerlich, C. ve Reuter, H. (2015). Fiscal Rules, Fiscal Space and Procyclical Fiscal Policy. European Central Bank Working Paper Series, 1872, 1-30.
  • Ostry, J., Ghosh, A., Kim, J. ve Qureshi, M. (2010). Fiscal Space. IMF Staff Position Note, SPN/10/11, 1-24.
  • Robertson, D. ve Tambakis, D. (2016). Long-Run Debt Ratios with Fiscal Fatigue. Cambridge Working Paper Economics, 1674, 1-39.
  • Uluslararası Para Fonu (International Monetary Fund – IMF) (2003). Public Debt in Emerging Markets: Is it Too High?. World Economic Outlook, 113-152.
  • Wooldridge, J. M. (2013). Ekonometriye Giriş - Modern Yaklaşım (Ebru Çağlayan, Çev.). Ankara: Nobel Akademi Yayıncılık (2009).
  • Zandi, M., Cheng, X. ve Packard, T. (2011). Fiscal Space. Moodys Analytics Special Report, 1-17.

Fiscal Fatigue: An Empirical Study on Turkey

Yıl 2021, Sayı: 58, 399 - 418, 30.04.2021
https://doi.org/10.18070/erciyesiibd.881564

Öz

The aim of the study is to determine the level of debt burden that fiscal fatigue behavior occurs through the financial reaction function in Turkey. Firstly, the fiscal reaction function was calculated for the period 1986-2019 by using the Ordinary Least Squares Method. Secondly, the interest-growth differential was calculated by using the data of the last ten years. And then, the values from both steps were aggregated through equations derived from the standard budget constraint, and the level of debt burden that fiscal fatigue behavior occurred was determined. Our findings show that the fiscal fatigue behavior occurs in Turkey when the public debt burden reaches approximately 44%. Consequently, it is essential to realize structural reforms that will either eliminate the fragile structure of the economy or reduce this fragility in Turkey.

Kaynakça

  • Abiad, A. ve Ostry, J. (2005). Primary Surpluses and Sustainable Debt Levels in Emerging Market Countries. IMF Policy Discussion Paper, PDP/05/6, 1-18.
  • Akar, S. (2019). Testing the Fiscal Fatigue Phenomenon in Turkey Using a Long-Run Non-Linear Fiscal Reaction Function Approach. Quantitative Finance and Economics (QFE), 3(4), 645-660.
  • Akbayır, F. ve Yereli, A.B. (2020). Türkiye’de Birincil Dengeyi Etkileyen Faktörler. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 15(2), 565-582.
  • Bastos, F. ve Pineda, E. (2013). Fiscal Space of Brazilian States. Inter-American Development Bank Discussion Paper, IDB-DP-310, 1-20.
  • Bohn, H. (1998). The Behavior of U.S. Public Debt and Deficits. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 949-963.
  • Bohn, H. (2008). The Sustainability of Fiscal Policy in the United States. CESifo Working Paper Series, 1446, 15-49.
  • Celasun, O., Debrun, X. ve Ostry, J. (2007). Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries: A “Fan-Chart” Approach. IMF Staff Papers, 53(3), 401-425.
  • Checherita-Westphal, C. ve Žďárek, V. (2017). Fiscal Reaction Function and Fiscal Fatigue: Evidence for the Euro Area. European Central Bank (ECB) Working Paper Series, 2036, 1-33.
  • Everaert, G. ve Jansen, S. (2018). On the Estimation of Panel Fiscal Reaction Functions: Heterogeneity or Fiscal Fatigue?. Economic Modelling, 70(2018), 87-96.
  • Fournier, J. ve Fall, F. (2017). Limits to Government Debt Sustainability in OECD Countries. Economic Modelling, 66, 30-41.
  • Ghosh, A., Kim, J., Mendoza, E., Ostry, J. ve Qureshi, M. (2011). Fiscal Fatigue, Fiscal Space and Debt Sustainability in Advanced Economies. NBER Working Paper Series, 16782, 1-49.
  • Ghosh, A., Kim, J., Mendoza, E., Ostry, J. ve Qureshi, M. (2013a). Fiscal Fatigue, Fiscal Space and Debt Sustainability in Advanced Economies. The Economic Journal, 123, F4-F30.
  • Ghosh, A., Ostry, J. ve Qureshi, M. (2013b). Fiscal Space and Sovereign Risk Pricing in a Currency Union. Journal of International Money and Finance, 34, 131-163.
  • Gujarati, D.N. ve Porter, D.C. (2012). Temel Ekonometri (Ümit Şenesen ve Gülay Günlük Şenesen, Çev.). İstanbul: Literatür Yayınları (2009).
  • Hajnovič, F. ve Zeman, J. (2013). Fiscal Space in the Euro Zone. Narodna Banka Slovenska, 21(2), 9-14.
  • Icaza, V.E. (2018). Fiscal Fatigue and Debt Sustainability: Empirical Evidence from the Eurozone 1980-2013. Cuadernos de Economía, 41, 69-78.
  • Karakaş, S. (2002). Nedensellik İlişkisi ve Pozitif Bilimin Amaçları Açısından Deneysel Ve Korelatif Yaklaşımlar. Klinik Psikiyatri, 5, 72-81.
  • Kasal, S. ve Özpençe, Ö. (2020). A Fiscal Space Analysis in Terms of Turkeys Domestic Debt. Sosyoekonomi, 28(43), 33-48.
  • Lee, J. ve Strazicich, M.C. (2003). Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks. Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4), 1082-1089.
  • Lozano-Espitia, I. ve Julio-Román, M. (2020). Debt Limits and Fiscal Space for Some Latin American Economies. Latin American Journal of Central Banking 1, 1-4, 100006.
  • MacKinnon, J. G. (1996). Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11(6), 601-618.
  • Mendoza, E. ve Ostry, J. (2008). International Evidence on Fiscal Solvency: Is Fiscal Policy “Responsible”?. Journal of Monetary Economics, 55, 1081-1093.
  • Nerlich, C. ve Reuter, H. (2015). Fiscal Rules, Fiscal Space and Procyclical Fiscal Policy. European Central Bank Working Paper Series, 1872, 1-30.
  • Ostry, J., Ghosh, A., Kim, J. ve Qureshi, M. (2010). Fiscal Space. IMF Staff Position Note, SPN/10/11, 1-24.
  • Robertson, D. ve Tambakis, D. (2016). Long-Run Debt Ratios with Fiscal Fatigue. Cambridge Working Paper Economics, 1674, 1-39.
  • Uluslararası Para Fonu (International Monetary Fund – IMF) (2003). Public Debt in Emerging Markets: Is it Too High?. World Economic Outlook, 113-152.
  • Wooldridge, J. M. (2013). Ekonometriye Giriş - Modern Yaklaşım (Ebru Çağlayan, Çev.). Ankara: Nobel Akademi Yayıncılık (2009).
  • Zandi, M., Cheng, X. ve Packard, T. (2011). Fiscal Space. Moodys Analytics Special Report, 1-17.
Toplam 28 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Fatih Akbayır 0000-0003-2831-619X

Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Nisan 2021
Kabul Tarihi 17 Mart 2021
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2021 Sayı: 58

Kaynak Göster

APA Akbayır, F. (2021). Mali Yorgunluk: Türkiye İçin Bir Uygulama. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi(58), 399-418. https://doi.org/10.18070/erciyesiibd.881564

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