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The Impact of Economic and Foreign Trade Policy Uncertainties on the Foreign Trade Balance between U.S. and China: An Analysis with Boundary Testing and ARDL

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 3, 1071 - 1102, 14.09.2022
https://doi.org/10.25295/fsecon.1087191

Öz

This study analyzes the impact of the increase in economic and trade policy uncertainties in the U.S. and China on the U.S. foreign trade balance with China by using the Ng-Perron unit root test, boundary testing, and ARDL methods, with reference to the data for the period 2000:Q1-2021:Q3. The analyses indicated that the increase in uncertainties in U.S. economic policies had a positive effect on the U.S. foreign trade balance in the long run, while the increase in uncertainties in China's economic policies had a negative effect on the U.S. foreign trade balance in the short and long run. It was also found that increased trade policy uncertainties in the U.S. did not have a significant impact on the U.S. foreign trade balance while increased trade policy uncertainties in China was shown to negatively affect the U.S. foreign trade balance with China in the short and long run. All these indications suggest that U.S. trade sanctions against China do not benefit the U.S. The study also found that increases in the real exchange rate had a negative impact on the U.S. foreign trade balance in the short and long run, which justifies U.S. policy regarding the exchange rate pressures against China.

Kaynakça

  • Referans1 Anand, R. and Tulin, V. (2014). Disentangling India’s Investment Slowdown. IMF Working Paper, No. 14/47. BEA (2022). Gross Domestic Product, Fourth Quarter and Year 2021. https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/gross-domestic-product-fourth-quarter-and-year-2021-advance-estimate#:~:text=Current%2Ddollar%20GDP%20increased %2010.0,(tables%201%20and%203). (Erişim Tarihi: 01.03.2022).
  • Referans2 Bekkers, E. and Schroeter, S. (2020). An Economic Analysıs of The US-China Trade Conflict. Economic Research and Statistics Division, World Trade Organization, Staff Working Paper, No. ERSD-2020-04.
  • Referans3 Bernanke, B.S. (1983). Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 98: 85–106.
  • Referans4 Bianconi, M., Esposito, F. and Sammon, M. (2021). Trade Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns. Journal of International Money and Finance, 119: 102492.
  • Referans5 Bloomberg (2022). China’s Trade Surplus Hit a Record $676 Billion in 2021. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-14/china-posts-record-trade-surplus-in-2021-on-soaring-exports, (Erişim Tarihi: 01.03.2022).
  • Referans6 Caldara, D., Iacoviello, M., Molligo, P., Prestipino, A. and Raffo, A. (2019). The Economic Effects of Trade Policy Uncertainty. Federal Reserve International Finance Discussion Papers, No. 1256.
  • Referans7 Çalık, U. (2011). Çin Ekonomisi (Mao ve Mao Sonrası Dönem). Liberal Düşünce, 16(64): 185-206. Census (2022a). Annual 2021 Press Highlights. https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/highlights/AnnualPressHighlights.pdf, (Erişim Tarihi: 01.03.2022). Referans8 Census (2022b). 2021: U.S. trade in goods with China. https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html, (Erişim Tarihi: 01.03.2022).
  • Referans9 Census (2022c). Foreign Trade. https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/index.html, (Erişim Tarihi: 01.03.2022). Census (2022d). Country and Product Trade Data. https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/country/index.html, (Erişim Tarihi: 01.03.2022).
  • Referans10 Chow, G.C. (2015). China’s Economic Transformation. (Third Edition), WILEY Blackwell, Maledn (USA), Oxford (UK). CNBC (2022). U.S. posts record trade deficit in 2021. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/08/us-trade-deficit-rose-1point8percent-in-december.html, (Erişim Tarihi: 01.03.2022). Referans12 Constantinescu, C., Mattoo, A., Ruta, M., Maliszewska, M. and Israel, O.R. (2019). Global Trade Watch 2018. Trade Amid Tensions. World Bank Report, May 2019, Washington, DC.
  • Referans13 Crowley, M., Meng, N. and Song, H. (2018). Tariff Scares: Trade Policy Uncertainty and Foreign Market Entry by Chinese Firms. Journal of International Economics, 114: 96–115.
  • Referans14 Davis, S.J. (2019). Rising Policy Uncertainty. http://www.policyuncertainty.com/media/ Rising%20Policy%20Uncertainty.pdf, (Accessed: 15.11.2020).
  • Referans15 Dixit, A.K. and Stiglitz, E. (1977). Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity. American Economic Review, 67: 277-308.
  • Referans16 Dixit A.K. and Pindyck, R.S. (1994). Investment Under Uncertainty. Princeton: Princeton UP. Fajgelbaum, P.D., Goldberg, P.K., Kennedy, P.J. and Khandelwal, A.K. (2019). The Return to Protectionism. NBER Working Paper, No. 25638.
  • Referans17 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2022). Research and Data Home. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/, (Erişim Tarihi: 02.03.2022).
  • Referans18 Freund, C., Ferrantino, M., Maliszewska, M. and Ruta, M. (2018). Impacts on Global Trade and Income of Current Trade Disputes. MTI Practice Notes.
  • Referans19 Gulen, H. and Ion, M. (2016). Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment. Review of Financial Studies, 29(3): 523-56.
  • Referans21 Handley, K., and Limao. N. (2017). Policy Uncertainty, Trade, and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for China and the United States. American Economic Review, 107(9): 2731-83.
  • Referans22 Handley, K., Kamal, F. and Monarch, R. (2020). Rising Import Tariffs, Falling Export Growth: When Modern Supply Chains Meet Old-Style Protectionism. NBER Working Paper, No. 26611.
  • Referans23 Hassan, T. A., Hollander, S., Lent, L.V. and Tahoun, A. (2019). Firm-Level Political Risk: Measurement and Effects. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 134(4): 2135-2202.
  • Referans24 Jones, K. (2015). Reconstructing the World Trade Organization for 21st Century, An Institutional Approach. Oxford University Press, Oxford, New York.
  • Referans25 Kleinberg, K.B. and Fordham, B.O. (2013). The Domestic Politics of Trade and Conflict. International Studies Quarterly, A Journal of the International Studies Association, 57(3): 605-619.
  • Referans26 Krugman, P. (1979). Increasing Returns, Monopolistic Competition, and International Trade. Journal of International Economics, 9(4): 469-479.
  • Referans27 Lee, M., Park, D. and Cui, A. (2013). Invisible Trade Barriers: Trade Effects of US Antidumping Actions Against the People’s Republic of China. Asian Development Bank Economics Working Paper Series, No. 378.
  • Referans28 Meltzer, J.P. and Shenai, N. (2019). The US-China Economic Relationship. A Comprehensive Approach. American Enterprise Institute (AEI) Policy Breif, February, https://www.wita.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/us_china_economic_relationship-1.pdf, (Erişim Tarihi: 15.11.2021).
  • Referans29 Ng, S. and Perron, P. (2001). Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power. Econometrica, 69(6): 1519–1554.
  • Referans30 Pesaran, H. M. and Shin, Y. (1998). An autoregressive distributed lag modelling approach to cointegration analysis. Econometncs and Economic Theory in the 20st Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium.
  • Referans31 Pesaran, H. M., Shin, Y. and Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics. 16(3): 289 - 326.
  • Referans32 Policy Uncertainty (2022). Economic Policy Uncertainty Index. https://www.policyuncertainty.com/, (Accessed: 01.03.2022).
  • Referans33 Rodrik, D. (1991). Policy Uncertainty and Private Investment in Developing Countries. Journal of Development Economics, 36: 229–242.
  • Referans34 Smith, A. (1776). An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations. (Ed: Edwin Cannan). (5th Edition), London: Methuen & Co., Ltd.
  • Referans35 Steinberg, J.B. (2019). Brexit and the Macroeconomic Impact of Trade Policy Uncertainty. Journal of International Economics, 117: 175 – 195.
  • Referans36 Steinbock, D. (2019). U.S.-China Trade War and Its Global Impacts. China Quarterly of International Strategic Studies, 4(4): 515–542.
  • Referans37 Stiglitz, J.E. (1999). Beggar-Thyself versus Beggar-Thy-Neighbor Policies: The Dangers of Intellectual Incoherence in Addressing the Global Financial Crisis. Southern Economic Journal, 66(1): 1 -38.
  • Referans38 Şakalak, A. ve Şimşek, T. (2021). Çin ve ABD’de Ticaret Politika Belirsizliği ve Enflasyon İlişkisi: Bootstrap Rolling Window Yaklaşımı. Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 22(2): 103-122.
  • Referans39 Xinhuanet (2022). Economic Watch: China's foreign trade hits new high in 2021. http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/20220114/ae925178e9764a9fa1593c740a23d165/c.html, (Erişim Tarihi: 01.03.2022).
  • Referans40 Tarı, R. (2012). Ekonometri. Umuttepe Yayınevi, Kocaeli, Türkiye.
  • Referans41 Uschina (2022). Top US Goods Export Markets, 2020. https://www.uschina.org/reports/2021-state-export-report, (Erişim Tarihi: 01.03.2022).
  • Referans42 Ustr (2022). Countries & Regions. https://ustr.gov/countries-regions#:~:text=The%20top%20five%20suppliers%20of,Union%2027%20were%20%24515%20billion.&text=The%20United%20States%20is%20the%20largest%20services%20exporter%20in%20the%20world (Erişim Tarihi: 01.03.2022).
  • Referans43 World Bank (2020). 2.  Chapter II. The Impact of the China-U.S. Trade Agreement. East Asia and Pacific Economic, Update April 2020, https://openknowledge.worldbank. org/bitstream/handle/10986/33477/211565-ch04.pdf, (Accessed: 15.11.2020).
  • Referans44 Zhang, D., Lei, L., Ji, Q. and Kutan, A.M. (2019). Economic Policy Uncertainty in the US and China and Their Impact on the Global Markets. Economic Modelling, 79: 47-56.

Ekonomi ve Dış Ticaret Politikası Belirsizliklerinin ABD-Çin Dış Ticaret Dengesine Etkileri: Sınır Testi ve ARDL ile Bir Analiz

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 3, 1071 - 1102, 14.09.2022
https://doi.org/10.25295/fsecon.1087191

Öz

Bu araştırmada ABD ve Çin’deki ekonomik ve ticaret politikası belirsizliklerindeki artışların, ABD’nin Çin’e karşı olan dış ticaret dengesi üzerindeki etkileri, 2000:Q1-2021:Q3 dönemi verileri kullanılarak Ng-Perron birim kök testi, Sınır Testi ve ARDL yöntemleri ile analiz edilmiştir. Analizler sonucunda; ABD’nin ekonomi politikalarındaki belirsizliklerin artmasının ABD’nin Çin’e olan dış ticaret dengesini uzun dönemde olumlu yönde etkilediği, Çin’in ekonomi politikalarındaki belirsizliklerin artmasının ise ABD’nin Çin’le olan dış ticaret dengesini hem uzun hem de kısa dönemde de olumsuz yönde etkilediği bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır. ABD’deki ticaret politikalarındaki belirsizliklerin artmasının ABD’nin Çin’le olan dış ticaret dengesi üzerinde anlamlı bir etkisinin olmadığı görülürken, Çin’deki ticaret politikalarındaki belirsizliklerin artmasının ise ABD’nin Çin karşısındaki dış ticaret dengesini kısa ve uzun dönemlerde olumsuz yönde etkilediği gösterilmiştir. Tüm bu emareler ABD’nin Çin’e karşı uyguladığı ticari yaptırımların kendisine fayda sağlamadığına işaret etmektedir. Diğer taraftan reel döviz kurundaki artışların, ABD’nin dış ticaret dengesini kısa dönemde de uzun dönemde de olumsuz yönde etkilediği görülmüştür. Bu nokta, ABD’nin Çin’e karşı kur baskısına ilişkin politikalarının haklılığına dayanak teşkil etmektedir.

Kaynakça

  • Referans1 Anand, R. and Tulin, V. (2014). Disentangling India’s Investment Slowdown. IMF Working Paper, No. 14/47. BEA (2022). Gross Domestic Product, Fourth Quarter and Year 2021. https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/gross-domestic-product-fourth-quarter-and-year-2021-advance-estimate#:~:text=Current%2Ddollar%20GDP%20increased %2010.0,(tables%201%20and%203). (Erişim Tarihi: 01.03.2022).
  • Referans2 Bekkers, E. and Schroeter, S. (2020). An Economic Analysıs of The US-China Trade Conflict. Economic Research and Statistics Division, World Trade Organization, Staff Working Paper, No. ERSD-2020-04.
  • Referans3 Bernanke, B.S. (1983). Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 98: 85–106.
  • Referans4 Bianconi, M., Esposito, F. and Sammon, M. (2021). Trade Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns. Journal of International Money and Finance, 119: 102492.
  • Referans5 Bloomberg (2022). China’s Trade Surplus Hit a Record $676 Billion in 2021. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-14/china-posts-record-trade-surplus-in-2021-on-soaring-exports, (Erişim Tarihi: 01.03.2022).
  • Referans6 Caldara, D., Iacoviello, M., Molligo, P., Prestipino, A. and Raffo, A. (2019). The Economic Effects of Trade Policy Uncertainty. Federal Reserve International Finance Discussion Papers, No. 1256.
  • Referans7 Çalık, U. (2011). Çin Ekonomisi (Mao ve Mao Sonrası Dönem). Liberal Düşünce, 16(64): 185-206. Census (2022a). Annual 2021 Press Highlights. https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/highlights/AnnualPressHighlights.pdf, (Erişim Tarihi: 01.03.2022). Referans8 Census (2022b). 2021: U.S. trade in goods with China. https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html, (Erişim Tarihi: 01.03.2022).
  • Referans9 Census (2022c). Foreign Trade. https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/index.html, (Erişim Tarihi: 01.03.2022). Census (2022d). Country and Product Trade Data. https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/country/index.html, (Erişim Tarihi: 01.03.2022).
  • Referans10 Chow, G.C. (2015). China’s Economic Transformation. (Third Edition), WILEY Blackwell, Maledn (USA), Oxford (UK). CNBC (2022). U.S. posts record trade deficit in 2021. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/08/us-trade-deficit-rose-1point8percent-in-december.html, (Erişim Tarihi: 01.03.2022). Referans12 Constantinescu, C., Mattoo, A., Ruta, M., Maliszewska, M. and Israel, O.R. (2019). Global Trade Watch 2018. Trade Amid Tensions. World Bank Report, May 2019, Washington, DC.
  • Referans13 Crowley, M., Meng, N. and Song, H. (2018). Tariff Scares: Trade Policy Uncertainty and Foreign Market Entry by Chinese Firms. Journal of International Economics, 114: 96–115.
  • Referans14 Davis, S.J. (2019). Rising Policy Uncertainty. http://www.policyuncertainty.com/media/ Rising%20Policy%20Uncertainty.pdf, (Accessed: 15.11.2020).
  • Referans15 Dixit, A.K. and Stiglitz, E. (1977). Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity. American Economic Review, 67: 277-308.
  • Referans16 Dixit A.K. and Pindyck, R.S. (1994). Investment Under Uncertainty. Princeton: Princeton UP. Fajgelbaum, P.D., Goldberg, P.K., Kennedy, P.J. and Khandelwal, A.K. (2019). The Return to Protectionism. NBER Working Paper, No. 25638.
  • Referans17 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2022). Research and Data Home. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/, (Erişim Tarihi: 02.03.2022).
  • Referans18 Freund, C., Ferrantino, M., Maliszewska, M. and Ruta, M. (2018). Impacts on Global Trade and Income of Current Trade Disputes. MTI Practice Notes.
  • Referans19 Gulen, H. and Ion, M. (2016). Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment. Review of Financial Studies, 29(3): 523-56.
  • Referans21 Handley, K., and Limao. N. (2017). Policy Uncertainty, Trade, and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for China and the United States. American Economic Review, 107(9): 2731-83.
  • Referans22 Handley, K., Kamal, F. and Monarch, R. (2020). Rising Import Tariffs, Falling Export Growth: When Modern Supply Chains Meet Old-Style Protectionism. NBER Working Paper, No. 26611.
  • Referans23 Hassan, T. A., Hollander, S., Lent, L.V. and Tahoun, A. (2019). Firm-Level Political Risk: Measurement and Effects. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 134(4): 2135-2202.
  • Referans24 Jones, K. (2015). Reconstructing the World Trade Organization for 21st Century, An Institutional Approach. Oxford University Press, Oxford, New York.
  • Referans25 Kleinberg, K.B. and Fordham, B.O. (2013). The Domestic Politics of Trade and Conflict. International Studies Quarterly, A Journal of the International Studies Association, 57(3): 605-619.
  • Referans26 Krugman, P. (1979). Increasing Returns, Monopolistic Competition, and International Trade. Journal of International Economics, 9(4): 469-479.
  • Referans27 Lee, M., Park, D. and Cui, A. (2013). Invisible Trade Barriers: Trade Effects of US Antidumping Actions Against the People’s Republic of China. Asian Development Bank Economics Working Paper Series, No. 378.
  • Referans28 Meltzer, J.P. and Shenai, N. (2019). The US-China Economic Relationship. A Comprehensive Approach. American Enterprise Institute (AEI) Policy Breif, February, https://www.wita.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/us_china_economic_relationship-1.pdf, (Erişim Tarihi: 15.11.2021).
  • Referans29 Ng, S. and Perron, P. (2001). Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power. Econometrica, 69(6): 1519–1554.
  • Referans30 Pesaran, H. M. and Shin, Y. (1998). An autoregressive distributed lag modelling approach to cointegration analysis. Econometncs and Economic Theory in the 20st Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium.
  • Referans31 Pesaran, H. M., Shin, Y. and Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics. 16(3): 289 - 326.
  • Referans32 Policy Uncertainty (2022). Economic Policy Uncertainty Index. https://www.policyuncertainty.com/, (Accessed: 01.03.2022).
  • Referans33 Rodrik, D. (1991). Policy Uncertainty and Private Investment in Developing Countries. Journal of Development Economics, 36: 229–242.
  • Referans34 Smith, A. (1776). An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations. (Ed: Edwin Cannan). (5th Edition), London: Methuen & Co., Ltd.
  • Referans35 Steinberg, J.B. (2019). Brexit and the Macroeconomic Impact of Trade Policy Uncertainty. Journal of International Economics, 117: 175 – 195.
  • Referans36 Steinbock, D. (2019). U.S.-China Trade War and Its Global Impacts. China Quarterly of International Strategic Studies, 4(4): 515–542.
  • Referans37 Stiglitz, J.E. (1999). Beggar-Thyself versus Beggar-Thy-Neighbor Policies: The Dangers of Intellectual Incoherence in Addressing the Global Financial Crisis. Southern Economic Journal, 66(1): 1 -38.
  • Referans38 Şakalak, A. ve Şimşek, T. (2021). Çin ve ABD’de Ticaret Politika Belirsizliği ve Enflasyon İlişkisi: Bootstrap Rolling Window Yaklaşımı. Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 22(2): 103-122.
  • Referans39 Xinhuanet (2022). Economic Watch: China's foreign trade hits new high in 2021. http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/20220114/ae925178e9764a9fa1593c740a23d165/c.html, (Erişim Tarihi: 01.03.2022).
  • Referans40 Tarı, R. (2012). Ekonometri. Umuttepe Yayınevi, Kocaeli, Türkiye.
  • Referans41 Uschina (2022). Top US Goods Export Markets, 2020. https://www.uschina.org/reports/2021-state-export-report, (Erişim Tarihi: 01.03.2022).
  • Referans42 Ustr (2022). Countries & Regions. https://ustr.gov/countries-regions#:~:text=The%20top%20five%20suppliers%20of,Union%2027%20were%20%24515%20billion.&text=The%20United%20States%20is%20the%20largest%20services%20exporter%20in%20the%20world (Erişim Tarihi: 01.03.2022).
  • Referans43 World Bank (2020). 2.  Chapter II. The Impact of the China-U.S. Trade Agreement. East Asia and Pacific Economic, Update April 2020, https://openknowledge.worldbank. org/bitstream/handle/10986/33477/211565-ch04.pdf, (Accessed: 15.11.2020).
  • Referans44 Zhang, D., Lei, L., Ji, Q. and Kutan, A.M. (2019). Economic Policy Uncertainty in the US and China and Their Impact on the Global Markets. Economic Modelling, 79: 47-56.
Toplam 40 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Oğuzhan Özçelik 0000-0001-6666-8976

Yayımlanma Tarihi 14 Eylül 2022
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2022 Cilt: 6 Sayı: 3

Kaynak Göster

APA Özçelik, O. (2022). Ekonomi ve Dış Ticaret Politikası Belirsizliklerinin ABD-Çin Dış Ticaret Dengesine Etkileri: Sınır Testi ve ARDL ile Bir Analiz. Fiscaoeconomia, 6(3), 1071-1102. https://doi.org/10.25295/fsecon.1087191

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