Araştırma Makalesi
BibTex RIS Kaynak Göster

REAL EXCHANGE RATE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH RELATIONSHIP IN TRANSITION ECONOMIES

Yıl 2017, Cilt: 22 Sayı: 3, 877 - 890, 30.07.2017

Öz

Following Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis, the relation between economic growth and real exchange rate has become an attention drawing subject in the literature. The existence of a strong relation between economic growth and real exchange rate necessitates the governments to choose the right exchange rate policies for achieving economic growth. This paper investigates the relation between economic growth and real exchange rate via panel data analysis using cross-sectional data of 12 transition economies in Eastern Europe and Middle Asia. The results of the analysis suggest a statistically significant increase in economic growth as the exchance rate decreases. However, real exchange rate movements do not turn out to be the major variable in explaining the economic growth.

Kaynakça

  • AGUIRRE, A. ve CALDERÓN, C. (2005). Real exchange rate misalignments and economic performance. Documentos de Trabajo (Banco Central de Chile), (315), 1-49.
  • BAL, H. (2004). Geçiş ekonomilerinde ekonomik büyüme ve dış finansman. Türkiye Manas Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 155-172.
  • BALASSA, B. (1964), The Purchasing Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal, Journal of Political Economy, 72 (6): 584–596
  • BARLOW, D. (2006). Growth in transition economies: A trade policy perspective. Economics of Transition, 14(3), 505-515.
  • BOERO, G., Mavromatis, K. ve Taylor, M. P. (2015). Real exchange rates and transition economies. Journal of international Money and Finance, 56, 23-35.
  • CHEN, J (2012). Real exchange rate and economic growth: evidence from Chinese provincial data (1992 - 2008). PSE Working Papers no: 2012-05, 1- 27.
  • COTTANI, J. A., CAVALLO, D. F. ve KHAN, M. S. (1990). Real exchange rate behavior and economic performance in LDCs. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 39(1), 61-76.
  • DOLLAR, D. (1992). Outward- oriented developing economies really do grow more rapidly: evidence from 95 LDCs, 1976-1985, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 40, 3, 523-544.
  • ÉGERT, B., Lommatzsch, K. ve Lahrèche-Révil, A. (2006). Real exchange rates in small open OECD and transition economies: comparing apples with oranges?. Journal of Banking & Finance, 30(12), 3393- 3406. FALCETTI, E., LYSENKO, T. ve SANFEY, P. (2006). Reforms and growth in transition: Re-examining the evidence. Journal of Comparative Economics, 34(3), 421-445.
  • GALA, P. (2008). Real exchange rate levels and economic development: theoretical analysis and econometric evidence. Cambridge Journal of economics, 32(2), 273-288.
  • HABIB, M. M., Mileva E. ve Stracca L. (2016). The real exchange rate and economic growth: revisiting the case using external instruments. European Central Bank Working Paper Series 1921, 1-31.
  • HAUSMAN, J. A. (1978). Specification Tests in Econometrics, Econometrica, 46(6), 1251-1271.
  • HAUSMANN, R., PRITCHETT, L. ve D. RODRİK (2005). Growth accelerations, Journal of Economic Growth, 10, 4, 303-329.
  • IMF (International Monetary Fund). (2000). Transition economies: An IMF perspective on progress and prospects. www.imf.org (E.T.:27.03.2017).
  • JAMES, R. vd. (2014). 25 Years of transition post-communist Europe and the IMF. International Monetary Fund, 1-62.
  • LEVIN, A., LIN C.F. ve CHU C-S.J, (2002), Unit root tests in panel data: Asymptotic and finite sample properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108, 1-22.
  • RAPETTI, M., SKOTT, P. ve RAZMI, A. (2012). The real exchange rate and economic growth: Are developing countries different?. International Review of Applied Economics, 26(6), 735-753.
  • RAZIN, O. ve COLLINS, S. M. (1997). Real exchange rate misalignments and growth. NationalBureau of Economic Research, Working Paper No. 6174, 1-21.
  • RODRIK, D. (2008). The real exchange rate and economic growth. Brookings papers on economic activity, 2008(2), 365-412.
  • SAMUELSON, P. A. (1964), Theoretical Notes on Trade Problems, Review of Economics and Statistics, 46 (2): 145–154
  • UDDIN, K. M. K., Rahman, M. M. ve Quaosar, G. A. A. (2014). Causalıty between exchange rate and economıc growth ın Bangladesh. European Scientific Journal, ESJ, 10(31), 11-26.
  • WORLD BANK, World Development Indicator, data.worldbank.org/data.

GEÇİŞ EKONOMİLERİNDE REEL DÖVİZ KURU VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME İLİŞKİSİ

Yıl 2017, Cilt: 22 Sayı: 3, 877 - 890, 30.07.2017

Öz

Literatürde ekonomik büyüme ve reel döviz kuru arasındaki ilişki Balassa- Samuelson hipotezinden sonra dikkat çeken bir konu haline gelmiştir. Ekonomik büyüme ve reel döviz kuru arasında güçlü bir ilişkinin varlığı, hükümetlerin ekonomik büyüme için doğru kur politikaları belirlemelerini gerekli kılmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, Doğu Avrupa ve Orta Asya’da yer alan 12 geçiş ekonomisinde 2006-2014 dönemi çapraz kesit verileri kullanılarak panel veri analiziyle ekonomik büyüme reel döviz kuru arasındaki ilişki araştırılmıştır. Araştırmamız, bu ülkelerde söz konusu dönemde reel döviz kuru azaldıkça ekonomik büyümenin arttığı ilişkisinin istatistiki olarak anlamlı fakat reel kurdaki hareketlerin büyümeyi açıklamada ana değişken olmadığı sonucunu vermiştir.

Kaynakça

  • AGUIRRE, A. ve CALDERÓN, C. (2005). Real exchange rate misalignments and economic performance. Documentos de Trabajo (Banco Central de Chile), (315), 1-49.
  • BAL, H. (2004). Geçiş ekonomilerinde ekonomik büyüme ve dış finansman. Türkiye Manas Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 155-172.
  • BALASSA, B. (1964), The Purchasing Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal, Journal of Political Economy, 72 (6): 584–596
  • BARLOW, D. (2006). Growth in transition economies: A trade policy perspective. Economics of Transition, 14(3), 505-515.
  • BOERO, G., Mavromatis, K. ve Taylor, M. P. (2015). Real exchange rates and transition economies. Journal of international Money and Finance, 56, 23-35.
  • CHEN, J (2012). Real exchange rate and economic growth: evidence from Chinese provincial data (1992 - 2008). PSE Working Papers no: 2012-05, 1- 27.
  • COTTANI, J. A., CAVALLO, D. F. ve KHAN, M. S. (1990). Real exchange rate behavior and economic performance in LDCs. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 39(1), 61-76.
  • DOLLAR, D. (1992). Outward- oriented developing economies really do grow more rapidly: evidence from 95 LDCs, 1976-1985, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 40, 3, 523-544.
  • ÉGERT, B., Lommatzsch, K. ve Lahrèche-Révil, A. (2006). Real exchange rates in small open OECD and transition economies: comparing apples with oranges?. Journal of Banking & Finance, 30(12), 3393- 3406. FALCETTI, E., LYSENKO, T. ve SANFEY, P. (2006). Reforms and growth in transition: Re-examining the evidence. Journal of Comparative Economics, 34(3), 421-445.
  • GALA, P. (2008). Real exchange rate levels and economic development: theoretical analysis and econometric evidence. Cambridge Journal of economics, 32(2), 273-288.
  • HABIB, M. M., Mileva E. ve Stracca L. (2016). The real exchange rate and economic growth: revisiting the case using external instruments. European Central Bank Working Paper Series 1921, 1-31.
  • HAUSMAN, J. A. (1978). Specification Tests in Econometrics, Econometrica, 46(6), 1251-1271.
  • HAUSMANN, R., PRITCHETT, L. ve D. RODRİK (2005). Growth accelerations, Journal of Economic Growth, 10, 4, 303-329.
  • IMF (International Monetary Fund). (2000). Transition economies: An IMF perspective on progress and prospects. www.imf.org (E.T.:27.03.2017).
  • JAMES, R. vd. (2014). 25 Years of transition post-communist Europe and the IMF. International Monetary Fund, 1-62.
  • LEVIN, A., LIN C.F. ve CHU C-S.J, (2002), Unit root tests in panel data: Asymptotic and finite sample properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108, 1-22.
  • RAPETTI, M., SKOTT, P. ve RAZMI, A. (2012). The real exchange rate and economic growth: Are developing countries different?. International Review of Applied Economics, 26(6), 735-753.
  • RAZIN, O. ve COLLINS, S. M. (1997). Real exchange rate misalignments and growth. NationalBureau of Economic Research, Working Paper No. 6174, 1-21.
  • RODRIK, D. (2008). The real exchange rate and economic growth. Brookings papers on economic activity, 2008(2), 365-412.
  • SAMUELSON, P. A. (1964), Theoretical Notes on Trade Problems, Review of Economics and Statistics, 46 (2): 145–154
  • UDDIN, K. M. K., Rahman, M. M. ve Quaosar, G. A. A. (2014). Causalıty between exchange rate and economıc growth ın Bangladesh. European Scientific Journal, ESJ, 10(31), 11-26.
  • WORLD BANK, World Development Indicator, data.worldbank.org/data.
Toplam 22 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Tuncay Çelik

Bekir Çelik

Doğan Barak Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Temmuz 2017
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2017 Cilt: 22 Sayı: 3

Kaynak Göster

APA Çelik, T., Çelik, B., & Barak, D. (2017). GEÇİŞ EKONOMİLERİNDE REEL DÖVİZ KURU VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME İLİŞKİSİ. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 22(3), 877-890.